Stochastic Model Predictive Control and Machine Learning for the Participation of Virtual Power Plants in Simultaneous Energy Markets

The emergence of distributed energy resources in the electricity system involves new scenarios in which domestic consumers (end-users) can be aggregated to participate in energy markets, acting as prosumers. Every prosumer is considered to work as an individual energy node, which has its own renewable generation source, its controllable and non-controllable energy loads, or even its own individual tariffs to trade. The nodes can build aggregations which are managed by a system operator. The participation in energy markets is not trivial for individual prosumers due to different aspects such as the technical requirements which must be satisfied, or the need to trade with a minimum volume of energy. These requirements can be solved by the definition of aggregated participations. In this context, the aggregators handle the difficult task of coordinating and stabilizing the prosumers' operations, not only at an individual level, but also at a system level, so that the set of energy nodes behaves as a single entity with respect to the market. The system operators can act as a trading-distributing company, or only as a trading one. For this reason, the optimization model must consider not only aggregated tariffs, but also individual tariffs to allow individual billing for each energy node. The energy node must have the required technical and legal competences, as well as the necessary equipment to manage their participation in energy markets or to delegate it to the system operator. This aggregation, according to business rules and not only to physical locations, is known as virtual power plant. The optimization of the aggregated participation in the different energy markets requires the introduction of the concept of dynamic storage virtualization. Therefore, every energy node in the system under study will have a battery installed to store excess energy. This dynamic virtualization defines logical partitions in the storage system to allow its use for different purposes. As an example, two different partitions can be defined: one for the aggregated participation in the day-ahead market, and the other one for the demand-response program. There are several criteria which must be considered when defining the participation strategy. A risky strategy will report more benefits in terms of trading; however, this strategy will also be more likely to get penalties for not meeting the contract due to uncertainties or operation errors. On the other hand, a conservative strategy would result worse economically in terms of trading, but it will reduce these potential penalties. The inclusion of dynamic intent profiles allows to set risky bids when there exist a potential low error of forecast in terms of generation, load or failures; and conservative bids otherwise. The system operator is the agent who decides how much energy will be reserved to trade, how much to energy node self consumption, how much to demand-response program participation etc. The large number of variables and states makes this problem too complex to be solved by classical methods, especially considering the fact that slight differences in wrong decisions would imply important economic issues in the short term. The concept of dynamic storage virtualization has been studied and implemented to allow the simultaneous participation in multiple energy markets. The simultaneous participations can be optimized considering the objective of potential profits, potential risks or even a combination of both considering more advanced criteria related to the system operator's know-how. Day-ahead bidding algorithms, demand-response program participation optimization and a penalty-reduction operation control algorithm have been developed. A stochastic layer has been defined and implemented to improve the robustness inherent to forecast-dependent systems. This layer has been developed with chance-constraints, which includes the possibility of combining an intelligent agent based on a encoder-decoder arquitecture built with neural networks composed of gated recurrent units. The formulation and the implementation allow a total decouplement among all the algorithms without any dependency among them. Nevertheless, they are completely engaged because the individual execution of each one considers both the current scenario and the selected strategy. This makes possible a wider and better context definition and a more real and accurate situation awareness. In addition to the relevant simulation runs, the platform has also been tested on a real system composed of 40 energy nodes during one year in the German island of Borkum. This experience allowed the extraction of very satisfactory conclusions about the deployment of the platform in real environments.La irrupción de los sistemas de generación distribuidos en los sistemas eléctricos dan lugar a nuevos escenarios donde los consumidores domésticos (usuarios finales) pueden participar en los mercados de energía actuando como prosumidores. Cada prosumidor es considerado como un nodo de energía con su propia fuente de generación de energía renovable, sus cargas controlables y no controlables e incluso sus propias tarifas. Los nodos pueden formar agregaciones que serán gestionadas por un agente denominado operador del sistema. La participación en los mercados energéticos no es trivial, bien sea por requerimientos técnicos de instalación o debido a la necesidad de cubrir un volumen mínimo de energía por transacción, que cada nodo debe cumplir individualmente. Estas limitaciones hacen casi imposible la participación individual, pero pueden ser salvadas mediante participaciones agregadas. El agregador llevará a cabo la ardua tarea de coordinar y estabilizar las operaciones de los nodos de energía, tanto individualmente como a nivel de sistema, para que todo el conjunto se comporte como una unidad con respecto al mercado. Las entidades que gestionan el sistema pueden ser meras comercializadoras, o distribuidoras y comercializadoras simultáneamente. Por este motivo, el modelo de optimización sobre el que basarán sus decisiones deberá considerar, además de las tarifas agregadas, otras individuales para permitir facturaciones independientes. Los nodos deberán tener autonomía legal y técnica, así como el equipamiento necesario y suficiente para poder gestionar, o delegar en el operador del sistema, su participación en los mercados de energía. Esta agregación atendiendo a reglas de negocio y no solamente a restricciones de localización física es lo que se conoce como Virtual Power Plant. La optimización de la participación agregada en los mercados, desde el punto de vista técnico y económico, requiere de la introducción del concepto de virtualización dinámica del almacenamiento, para lo que será indispensable que los nodos pertenecientes al sistema bajo estudio consten de una batería para almacenar la energía sobrante. Esta virtualización dinámica definirá particiones lógicas en el sistema de almacenamiento para dedicar diferentes porcentajes de la energía almacenada para propósitos distintos. Como ejemplo, se podría hacer una virtualización en dos particiones lógicas diferentes: una de demand-response. Así, el sistema podría operar y satisfacer ambos mercados de manera simultánea con el mismo grid y el mismo almacenamiento. El potencial de estas particiones lógicas es que se pueden definir de manera dinámica, dependiendo del contexto de ejecución y del estado, tanto de la red, como de cada uno de los nodos a nivel individual. Para establecer una estrategia de participación se pueden considerar apuestas arriesgadas que reportarán más beneficios en términos de compra-venta, pero también posibles penalizaciones por no poder cumplir con el contrato. Por el contrario, una estrategia conservadora podría resultar menos beneficiosa económicamente en dichos términos de compra-venta, pero reducirá las penalizaciones. La inclusión del concepto de perfiles de intención dinámicos permitirá hacer pujas que sean arriesgadas, cuando existan errores de predicción potencialmente pequeños en términos de generación, consumo o fallos; y pujas más conservadoras en caso contrario. El operador del sistema es el agente que definirá cuánta energía utiliza para comercializar, cuánta para asegurar autoconsumo, cuánta desea tener disponible para participar en el programa de demand-response etc. El gran número de variables y de situaciones posibles hacen que este problema sea muy costoso y complejo de resolver mediante métodos clásicos, sobre todo teniendo en cuenta que pequeñas variaciones en la toma de decisiones pueden tener grandes implicaciones económicas incluso a corto plazo. En esta tesis se ha investigado en el concepto de virtualización dinámica del almacenamiento para permitir una participación simultánea en múltiples mercados. La estrategia de optimización definida permite participaciones simultáneas en diferentes mercados que pueden ser controladas con el objetivo de optimizar el beneficio potencial, el riesgo potencial, o incluso una combinación mixta de ambas en base a otros criterios más avanzados marcados por el know-how del operador del sistema. Se han desarrollado algoritmos de optimización para el mercado del day-ahead, para la participación en el programa de demand-response y un algoritmo de control para reducir las penalizaciones durante la operación mediante modelos de control predictivo. Se ha realizado la definición e implementación de un componente estocástico para hacer el sistema más robusto frente a la incertidumbre inherente a estos sistemas en los que hay tanto peso de una componente de tipo forecasing. La formulación de esta capa se ha realizado mediante chance-constraints, que incluye la posibilidad de combinar diferentes componentes para mejorar la precisión de la optimización. Para el caso de uso presentado se ha elegido la combinación de métodos estadísticos por probabilidad junto a un agente inteligente basado en una arquitectura de codificador-decodificador construida con redes neuronales compuestas de Gated Recurrent Units. La formulación y la implementación utilizada permiten que, aunque todos los algoritmos estén completamente desacoplados y no presenten dependencias entre ellos, todos se actual como la estrategia seleccionada. Esto permite la definición de un contexto mucho más amplio en la ejecución de las optimizaciones y una toma de decisiones más consciente, real y ajustada a la situación que condiciona al proceso. Además de las pertinentes pruebas de simulación, parte de la herramienta ha sido probada en un sistema real compuesto por 40 nodos domésticos, convenientemente equipados, durante un año en una infraestructura implantada en la isla alemana de Borkum. Esta experiencia ha permitido extraer conclusiones muy interesantes sobre la implantación de la plataforma en entornos reales

Intent Profile Strategy for Virtual Power Plant Participation in Simultaneous Energy Markets With Dynamic Storage Management

The emergence of distributed energy resources in the electricity system involves new scenarios in which domestic consumers can be aggregated in virtual power plants to participate in energy markets. In this paper, a reconfigurable hierarchical multi-time scale framework is developed by combining the concepts of dynamic storage virtualization and intent profiling with model predictive control. The combined implementation of these concepts allows the simultaneous weighted participation in different energy markets, not only according to some aggregators’ criteria, but also to several risk factors. In a first stage, the framework optimizes the strategy for bidding in day-ahead market whereas the second one consists of a control stage to mitigate deviations and potential penalties. The smart management of individual storage virtualization enables the participation in the demand-response program, which improves the forecasted economical profit related to the day-ahead participation. The changes in the schedule are performed considering new potential penalties. The framework is reconfigurable at every sample time at control stage. This enables to make dynamic participations depending on node availability or system peaks. The proposed case studies cover day-ahead and demand-response participations, but the framework is open to other multi-service configurations. The results have been assessed with satisfactory conclusions.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación - Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI) PID2019-104149RB-I00/10.13039/50110001103

Management of Infection and Febrile Neutropenia in Patients with Solid Cancer

[ES] Un grupo de expertos de la Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica (SEIMC) y de la Sociedad Española de Oncología Médica (SEOM) han revisado en este documento los principales aspectos que deben considerarse en la evaluación de los pacientes con cáncer sólido y complicaciones infecciosas. Para ello se han establecido unas recomendaciones sobre la profilaxis de las infecciones más prevalentes en estos pacientes, el uso de vacunas, las medidas de control de la infección por catéteres vasculares y la prevención de la infección ante determinadas maniobras quirúrgicas. A continuación, se han revisado los criterios de manejo de la neutropenia febril y del uso de factores estimulantes de colonias, para terminar dando una serie de pautas sobre el tratamiento del paciente oncológico con infección grave. El documento se completa con una serie de medidas para el control de la infección hospitalaria.[EN] A group of experts from the Spanish Society of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology (SEIMC) and the Spanish Society of Medical Oncology (SEOM) have reviewed in this paper the main aspects to be considered in the evaluation of patients with solid cancer and infectious diseases. They have established a series of recommendations on the prevention of the most prevalent infections in these patients, the use of vaccines, the control measures of vascular catheter infection and prevention of infections before certain surgical procedures. Also the criteria for management of febrile neutropenia and the use of colony-stimulating factors were revised. Finally they provide a series of recommendations for the treatment of cancer patients with severe infection. The document is completed with a series of measures for the control of hospital infection.Peer reviewe

Co-infections and superinfections complicating COVID-19 in cancer patients: A multicentre, international study

Background: We aimed to describe the epidemiology, risk factors, and clinical outcomes of co-infections and superinfections in onco-hematological patients with COVID-19. Methods: International, multicentre cohort study of cancer patients with COVID-19. All patients were included in the analysis of co-infections at diagnosis, while only patients admitted at least 48 h were included in the analysis of superinfections. Results: 684 patients were included (384 with solid tumors and 300 with hematological malignancies). Co-infections and superinfections were documented in 7.8% (54/684) and 19.1% (113/590) of patients, respectively. Lower respiratory tract infections were the most frequent infectious complications, most often caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Only seven patients developed opportunistic infections. Compared to patients without infectious complications, those with infections had worse outcomes, with high rates of acute respiratory distress syndrome, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and case-fatality rates. Neutropenia, ICU admission and high levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) were independent risk factors for infections. Conclusions: Infectious complications in cancer patients with COVID-19 were lower than expected, affecting mainly neutropenic patients with high levels of CRP and/or ICU admission. The rate of opportunistic infections was unexpectedly low. The use of empiric antimicrobials in cancer patients with COVID-19 needs to be optimized

Recommendations for screening, monitoring, prevention, and prophylaxis of infections in adult and pediatric patients receiving CAR T-cell therapy : a position paper

Chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy is one of the most promising emerging treatments for B-cell malignancies. Recently, two CAR T-cell products (axicabtagene ciloleucel and tisagenlecleucel) have been approved for patients with aggressive B-cell lymphoma and acute lymphoblastic leukemia; many other CAR-T constructs are in research for both hematological and non-hematological diseases. Most of the patients receiving CAR-T therapy will develop fever at some point after infusion, mainly due to cytokine release syndrome (CRS). The onset of CRS is often indistinguishable from an infection, which makes management of these patients challenging. In addition to the lymphodepleting chemotherapy and CAR T cells, the treatment of complications with corticosteroids and/or tocilizumab increases the risk of infection in these patients. Data regarding incidence, risk factors and prevention of infections in patients receiving CAR-T cell therapy are scarce. To assist in patient care, a multidisciplinary team from hospitals designated by the Spanish Ministry of Health to perform CAR-T therapy prepared these recommendations. We reviewed the literature on the incidence, risk factors, and management of infections in adult and pediatric patients receiving CAR-T cell treatment. Recommendations cover different areas: monitoring and treatment of hypogammaglobulinemia, prevention, prophylaxis, and management of bacterial, viral, and fungal infections as well as vaccination prior and after CAR-T cell therapy

Breakthrough invasive fungal infection among patients with haematologic malignancies: A national, prospective, and multicentre study

Objectives: We describe the current epidemiology, causes, and outcomes of breakthrough invasive fungal infections (BtIFI) in patients with haematologic malignancies.Methods: BtIFI in patients with & GE; 7 days of prior antifungals were prospectively diagnosed (36 months across 13 Spanish hospitals) according to revised EORTC/MSG definitions.Results: 121 episodes of BtIFI were documented, of which 41 (33.9%) were proven; 53 (43.8%), probable; and 27 (22.3%), possible. The most frequent prior antifungals included posaconazole (32.2%), echinocandins (28.9%) and fluconazole (24.8%)-mainly for primary prophylaxis (81%). The most common haematologic malignancy was acute leukaemia (64.5%), and 59 (48.8%) patients had undergone a hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation. Invasive aspergillosis, principally caused by non-fumigatus Aspergillus, was the most fre-quent BtIFI with 55 (45.5%) episodes recorded, followed by candidemia (23, 19%), mucormycosis (7, 5.8%), other moulds (6, 5%) and other yeasts (5, 4.1%). Azole resistance/non-susceptibility was commonly found. Prior antifungal therapy widely determined BtIFI epidemiology. The most common cause of BtIFI in proven and probable cases was the lack of activity of the prior antifungal (63, 67.0%). At diagnosis, antifungal therapy was mostly changed (90.9%), mainly to liposomal amphotericin-B (48.8%). Overall, 10 0-day mor-tality was 47.1%; BtIFI was either the cause or an essential contributing factor to death in 61.4% of cases.Conclusions: BtIFI are mainly caused by non-fumigatus Aspergillus, non-albicans Candida, Mucorales and other rare species of mould and yeast. Prior antifungals determine the epidemiology of BtIFI. The exceed-ingly high mortality due to BtIFI warrants an aggressive diagnostic approach and early initiation of broad-spectrum antifungals different than those previously used.& COPY; 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The British Infection Association. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

SARS-CoV-2 viral load in nasopharyngeal swabs is not an independent predictor of unfavorable outcome

The aim was to assess the ability of nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 viral load at first patient’s hospital evaluation to predict unfavorable outcomes. We conducted a prospective cohort study including 321 adult patients with confirmed COVID-19 through RT-PCR in nasopharyngeal swabs. Quantitative Synthetic SARS-CoV-2 RNA cycle threshold values were used to calculate the viral load in log10 copies/mL. Disease severity at the end of follow up was categorized into mild, moderate, and severe. Primary endpoint was a composite of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and/or death (n = 85, 26.4%). Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed. Nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 viral load over the second quartile (≥ 7.35 log10 copies/mL, p = 0.003) and second tertile (≥ 8.27 log10 copies/mL, p = 0.01) were associated to unfavorable outcome in the unadjusted logistic regression analysis. However, in the final multivariable analysis, viral load was not independently associated with an unfavorable outcome. Five predictors were independently associated with increased odds of ICU admission and/or death: age ≥ 70 years, SpO2, neutrophils > 7.5 × 103/µL, lactate dehydrogenase ≥ 300 U/L, and C-reactive protein ≥ 100 mg/L. In summary, nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 viral load on admission is generally high in patients with COVID-19, regardless of illness severity, but it cannot be used as an independent predictor of unfavorable clinical outcome

Dendritic cell deficiencies persist seven months after SARS-CoV-2 infection

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2 infection induces an exacerbated inflammation driven by innate immunity components. Dendritic cells (DCs) play a key role in the defense against viral infections, for instance plasmacytoid DCs (pDCs), have the capacity to produce vast amounts of interferon-alpha (IFN-α). In COVID-19 there is a deficit in DC numbers and IFN-α production, which has been associated with disease severity. In this work, we described that in addition to the DC deficiency, several DC activation and homing markers were altered in acute COVID-19 patients, which were associated with multiple inflammatory markers. Remarkably, previously hospitalized and nonhospitalized patients remained with decreased numbers of CD1c+ myeloid DCs and pDCs seven months after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Moreover, the expression of DC markers such as CD86 and CD4 were only restored in previously nonhospitalized patients, while no restoration of integrin β7 and indoleamine 2,3-dyoxigenase (IDO) levels were observed. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the immunological sequelae of COVID-19

Treatment with tocilizumab or corticosteroids for COVID-19 patients with hyperinflammatory state: a multicentre cohort study (SAM-COVID-19)

Objectives: The objective of this study was to estimate the association between tocilizumab or corticosteroids and the risk of intubation or death in patients with coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) with a hyperinflammatory state according to clinical and laboratory parameters. Methods: A cohort study was performed in 60 Spanish hospitals including 778 patients with COVID-19 and clinical and laboratory data indicative of a hyperinflammatory state. Treatment was mainly with tocilizumab, an intermediate-high dose of corticosteroids (IHDC), a pulse dose of corticosteroids (PDC), combination therapy, or no treatment. Primary outcome was intubation or death; follow-up was 21 days. Propensity score-adjusted estimations using Cox regression (logistic regression if needed) were calculated. Propensity scores were used as confounders, matching variables and for the inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTWs). Results: In all, 88, 117, 78 and 151 patients treated with tocilizumab, IHDC, PDC, and combination therapy, respectively, were compared with 344 untreated patients. The primary endpoint occurred in 10 (11.4%), 27 (23.1%), 12 (15.4%), 40 (25.6%) and 69 (21.1%), respectively. The IPTW-based hazard ratios (odds ratio for combination therapy) for the primary endpoint were 0.32 (95%CI 0.22-0.47; p < 0.001) for tocilizumab, 0.82 (0.71-1.30; p 0.82) for IHDC, 0.61 (0.43-0.86; p 0.006) for PDC, and 1.17 (0.86-1.58; p 0.30) for combination therapy. Other applications of the propensity score provided similar results, but were not significant for PDC. Tocilizumab was also associated with lower hazard of death alone in IPTW analysis (0.07; 0.02-0.17; p < 0.001). Conclusions: Tocilizumab might be useful in COVID-19 patients with a hyperinflammatory state and should be prioritized for randomized trials in this situatio

Association between convalescent plasma treatment and mortality in COVID-19: a collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials.

Funder: laura and john arnold foundationBACKGROUND: Convalescent plasma has been widely used to treat COVID-19 and is under investigation in numerous randomized clinical trials, but results are publicly available only for a small number of trials. The objective of this study was to assess the benefits of convalescent plasma treatment compared to placebo or no treatment and all-cause mortality in patients with COVID-19, using data from all available randomized clinical trials, including unpublished and ongoing trials (Open Science Framework, https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/GEHFX ). METHODS: In this collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis, clinical trial registries (ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform), the Cochrane COVID-19 register, the LOVE database, and PubMed were searched until April 8, 2021. Investigators of trials registered by March 1, 2021, without published results were contacted via email. Eligible were ongoing, discontinued and completed randomized clinical trials that compared convalescent plasma with placebo or no treatment in COVID-19 patients, regardless of setting or treatment schedule. Aggregated mortality data were extracted from publications or provided by investigators of unpublished trials and combined using the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman random effects model. We investigated the contribution of unpublished trials to the overall evidence. RESULTS: A total of 16,477 patients were included in 33 trials (20 unpublished with 3190 patients, 13 published with 13,287 patients). 32 trials enrolled only hospitalized patients (including 3 with only intensive care unit patients). Risk of bias was low for 29/33 trials. Of 8495 patients who received convalescent plasma, 1997 died (23%), and of 7982 control patients, 1952 died (24%). The combined risk ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.92; 1.02) with between-study heterogeneity not beyond chance (I2 = 0%). The RECOVERY trial had 69.8% and the unpublished evidence 25.3% of the weight in the meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Convalescent plasma treatment of patients with COVID-19 did not reduce all-cause mortality. These results provide strong evidence that convalescent plasma treatment for patients with COVID-19 should not be used outside of randomized trials. Evidence synthesis from collaborations among trial investigators can inform both evidence generation and evidence application in patient care